A recent article in the New York Post suggests that a large-scale physician shortage is on the horizon. According to statistics from the American Association of Medical Colleges, the country faces a shortfall of more than 150,000 doctors over the next 15 years.
Cato Institute senior fellow and co-author of “Healthy Competition: What’s Holding Back Healthcare and How to Free It,” Michael Tanner, wrote the op-ed piece. In which he argues that American demand for intensive healthcare will grow in the coming years, as Baby Boomers reach retirement age and consequently raise enrollment in to Medicare. Demand should also be intensified after last year’s healthcare reform bill, which is expected to increase the number of people with health insurance as well as those participating in Medicaid.
The increase in demand for medical services could then be met with a decrease in the supply of physicians. Medical schools are already reporting flat enrollment rates, which would suggest that not enough new physicians are being educated to keep up with increasing demand. At the same time, the industry for current physicians is facing stricter regulations and lower reimbursement rates, which in turn translates into higher risk for less pay.
The effect of changes in the current marketplace for doctors is evidenced in a 2010 IBD/TPP Poll, where 45% of doctors suggested that they would at least consider leaving their practice or taking an early retirement. A separate survey by Sermo.com, a social network for physicians, found that 26% of physicians in solo practices were considering closing. The effects however are not just theoretical. In Massachusetts, where health care reform mirrors that of the national government, the average wait for a doctor’s appointment grew from 33 days to 55 days after enacting the law.
It is still too early to say whether the uptick in demand will overwhelm the downsizing of the industry. But with presidential campaigns already underway, we will certainly hear many colorful perspectives and debates on the subject in the months to come.
